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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 4 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 15 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 14 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
62%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
457 picks · 1013 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
427 picks · 614 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 660 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 652 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
336 picks · 291 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 387 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
266 picks · 842 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 178 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
Evil Geniuses 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:47.
Game 2prediction correct15:24
Evil Geniuses 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:47.
Game 3prediction correct12:40
Evil Geniuses 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3