DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Evil Geniuses 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusPakazs
Muertashiro
DoomWisper
Void SpiritNothingToSay
SnapfireChris Luck
Windrangerniu
Monkey KingMatthew
Winter WyvernpLAnet
LichPanda
Rubicky`
Game 2prediction missed35:12
Evil Geniuses 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Monkey KingPakazs
Faceless Voidshiro
VenomancerWisper
Timbersawniu
WindrangerMatthew
PhoenixpLAnet
Skywrath MagePanda
Witch Doctory`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2