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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 10 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 639 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 222 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 995 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
353 picks · 194 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 219 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:27
Evil Geniuses 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:43.
Game 2prediction missed11:28
Evil Geniuses 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Accuracy by game0 of 2