Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
594 picks · 455 bans
Mars
419 picks · 645 bans
Puck
407 picks · 863 bans
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 513 bans
Bane
371 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 617 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Evil Geniuses 53%Quincy Crew 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 54:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1