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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 23 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 627 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 536 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
540 picks · 1331 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
540 picks · 1068 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
464 picks · 960 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1169 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
462 picks · 496 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
444 picks · 637 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:39
Evil Geniuses 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
49% · 161 game60% · 161 game
Naga Siren23savage
Naga Siren
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChris Luck
53% · 213 games51% · 218 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
52% · 135 games38% · 128 games
WindrangerJabz
Windranger
Techies
TechiesMatthew
54% · 196 games42% · 151 game
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingPanda
53% · 196 games48% · 243 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Evil Geniuses 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderPakazs
44% · 60 games50% · 100 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
52% · 202 games51% · 80 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerChris Luck
51% · 91 game51% · 152 games
Monkey KingJabz
Monkey King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMatthew
49% · 172 games51% · 161 game
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanda
48% · 81 game53% · 113 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2