The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 12 games
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 12 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
Undyingsignature
Panda · 9 games
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Fantasy · 10 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 468 bans
Tusk
588 picks · 526 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
540 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
399 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 248 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 598 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Evil Geniuses 53%Team Aster 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciPakazs
TerrorbladeMonet
Death ProphetChris Luck
Nature's ProphetXxs
BeastmasterWisper
PangolierXwy
SnapfireMatthew
Monkey KingBoBoKa
UndyingPanda
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Evil Geniuses 53%Team Aster 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Aster in 54:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaPakazs
Shadow FiendMonet
Death ProphetChris Luck
Ember SpiritXwy
MarsWisper
EnigmaXxs
SnapfireMatthew
TinyBoBoKa
UndyingPanda
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Game 3prediction correct28:7
Evil Geniuses 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPakazs
SniperMonet
KunkkaChris Luck
BeastmasterXxs
BatriderWisper
PuckXwy
ClockwerkMatthew
SnapfireBoBoKa
SilencerPanda
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3