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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
32%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
42%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
42%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%

Team SMG

Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 9 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
38%
Techies
Techies
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 435 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 268 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
187 picks · 260 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 370 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
174 picks · 106 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:8
Evil Geniuses 51%Team SMG 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPakazs
48% · 37 games49% · 62 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Dazzle
DazzleWisper
53% · 11 games44% · 68 games
Keeper of the LightNo[o]ne
Keeper of the Light
Kunkka
KunkkaChris Luck
46% · 56 games53% · 35 games
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskMatthew
52% · 142 games56% · 88 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
51% · 53 games49% · 46 games
TechiesAhFu
Techies
Game 2prediction correct35:12
Evil Geniuses 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
54% · 36 games60% · 34 games
MuertaMidOne
Muerta
Kunkka
KunkkaChris Luck
50% · 57 games52% · 77 games
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixWisper
45% · 89 games47% · 61 game
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
56% · 99 games48% · 79 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
54% · 19 games41% · 49 games
Vengeful SpiritJaunuel
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 50%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2