Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Undyingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marssignature
Tavo · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 999 bans
Mars
353 picks · 574 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 526 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 352 bans
Lion
328 picks · 179 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:22
Evil Geniuses 51%Team Undying 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Undying in 21:16.
Game 2prediction missed8:24
Evil Geniuses 51%Team Undying 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Undying in 26:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2