Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Undyingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
413 picks · 295 bans
Mars
386 picks · 559 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 175 bans
Queen of Pain
305 picks · 365 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 733 bans
Kunkka
245 picks · 417 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 320 bans
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Team Undying
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Evil Geniuses 34%Team Undying 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 34:46.
Game 2prediction correct40:29
Evil Geniuses 34%Team Undying 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 40:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 66%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2