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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 4 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 4 games
50%

The Cut

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
451 picks · 988 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
429 picks · 592 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 696 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 608 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 184 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
287 picks · 248 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:5
Evil Geniuses 71%The Cut 29%
The model gave 71% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 17:33.
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Evil Geniuses 71%The Cut 29%
The model gave 71% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by The Cut in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 71%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2