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BetBoom Dacha · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 28 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 22 games
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 44 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 209 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 515 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
328 picks · 344 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 521 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
296 picks · 575 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
295 picks · 480 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
276 picks · 657 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 495 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 19%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Evil Geniuses 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPakazs
54% · 69 games58% · 44 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsWisper
46% · 161 game56% · 230 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChris Luck
50% · 121 game51% · 37 games
Brewmasterkasane
Brewmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
42% · 375 games48% · 406 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanda
51% · 30 games47% · 39 games
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed32:29
Evil Geniuses 56%TSM 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
56% · 87 games52% · 101 game
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWisper
53% · 46 games53% · 99 games
Primal Beastbryle-
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChris Luck
48% · 67 games37% · 75 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderMatthew
53% · 237 games49% · 123 games
Nature's ProphetAri
Nature's Prophet
Warlock
WarlockPanda
57% · 26 games43% · 65 games
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2