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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fusionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LOyd · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%

Fusion

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Michael · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 3 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 3 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Prada · 3 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Michael · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 780 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 353 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
342 picks · 246 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 708 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 499 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
303 picks · 370 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 617 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength64% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Evil Rabbit 59%Fusion 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Fusion in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerButterflyEffect
53% · 126 games52% · 177 games
SvenWits
Sven
Pangolier
Pangolierxiaoyu154
48% · 238 games52% · 171 game
Templar AssassinLeostyle
Templar Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLOyd
46% · 27 games47% · 79 games
SnapfireMichael
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressQYQX
50% · 125 games50% · 89 games
Elder TitanPrada
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Evil Rabbit 57%Fusion 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
53% · 49 games46% · 186 games
Dragon KnightWits
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
Pangolierxiaoyu154
49% · 198 games45% · 117 games
Keeper of the LightLeostyle
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLOyd
54% · 182 games59% · 89 games
Spirit BreakerMichael
Spirit Breaker
Sven
SvenQYQX
47% · 137 games46% · 174 games
EnchantressPrada
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct25:6
Evil Rabbit 57%Fusion 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaButterflyEffect
43% · 67 games48% · 153 games
MorphlingWits
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
51% · 181 game51% · 35 games
Queen of PainLeostyle
Queen of Pain
Weaver
WeaverLOyd
53% · 123 games60% · 89 games
ChenPrada
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroQYQX
40% · 58 games52% · 152 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 64%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3