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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Irving · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Irving · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 4 games
25%

TEAM TURTLE

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Yang · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Somnus · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fantasy · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Yang · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 594 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 413 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 400 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 597 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
296 picks · 161 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 344 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
Evil Rabbit 24%TEAM TURTLE 76%
The model gave 76% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverukiyo
54% · 220 games55% · 69 games
Nature's ProphetMonet
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightIrving
48% · 357 games41% · 145 games
TimbersawSomnus
Timbersaw
51% · 27 games
Night StalkerChalice
Night Stalker
44% · 154 games
Batriderfy
Batrider
52% · 182 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct3:33
Evil Rabbit 24%TEAM TURTLE 76%
The model gave 76% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE in 20:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetukiyo
49% · 118 games50% · 39 games
BristlebackMonet
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaIrving
52% · 123 games51% · 96 games
PangolierChalice
Pangolier
46% · 48 games
Monkey KingSomnus
Monkey King
55% · 38 games
Muertafy
Muerta
44% · 20 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 89%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2