Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Old Gloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 12 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 11 games
Broodmothersignature
Malik · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
925 picks · 631 bans
Tiny
648 picks · 454 bans
Nature's Prophet
553 picks · 884 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 542 bans
Snapfire
496 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
477 picks · 1044 bans
Clockwerk
452 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 83%
Hero pool strength57% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:51
ex-HellRaisers 50%Old G 50%
The model gave 50% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 36:32.
Game 2prediction correct54:18
ex-HellRaisers 50%Old G 50%
The model gave 50% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 34:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 50%
Series resultex-HellRaisers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2