DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-Heroicloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Heroic
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
KJ · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
Rubick
Thiolicor · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 22 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Tiny
Hellscream · 20 games
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
Void Spirit
Abed · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 354 bans
Jakiro
409 picks · 311 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 201 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 315 bans
Puck
343 picks · 850 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% ex-Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% ex-Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:17
ex-Heroic 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Heroic — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBatyuk
TerrorbladeTimado
TinyYuma
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Void SpiritTaiLung
PuckAbed
HoodwinkThiolicor
ClockwerkHellscream
SilencerKJ
TechiesFly
Game 2prediction missed31:50
ex-Heroic 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on ex-Heroic — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
TinyTimado
Ember SpiritTaiLung
PuckAbed
DoomBatyuk
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
ZeusKJ
ClockwerkHellscream
HoodwinkThiolicor
LichFly
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Heroic · 60%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2