?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-Monaspawin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ex-Monaspa

No games played over 6 months.

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
18%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 556 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 522 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
559 picks · 1270 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1094 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
511 picks · 573 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
475 picks · 946 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1101 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 648 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% ex-Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:37
ex-Monaspa 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 35:03.
Game 2prediction missed26:7
ex-Monaspa 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 47:17.
Game 3prediction missed10:25
ex-Monaspa 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 45:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 61%
Series resultex-Monaspa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3