Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionEex-Monaspawin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Old Gloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 19 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 14 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
swedenstrong · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 621 bans
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
Doom
513 picks · 992 bans
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1266 bans
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1133 bans
Pangolier
443 picks · 910 bans
Mirana
423 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
418 picks · 605 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
ex-Monaspa 61%Old G 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Old G in 39:11.
Game 2prediction missed35:26
ex-Monaspa 61%Old G 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Old G in 44:49.
Game 3prediction missed34:14
ex-Monaspa 61%Old G 39%
The model gave 61% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Old G in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 61%
Series resultex-Monaspa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3