ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs predictionEEExcel Esportswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FGFuture Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Excel Esports
Batrider
Hara · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 4 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
Lion
Hara · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Future Gaming
Marsoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
rayy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
449 picks · 670 bans
Jakiro
411 picks · 406 bans
Phantom Assassin
353 picks · 722 bans
Bristleback
326 picks · 615 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 526 bans
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 586 bans
Warlock
298 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% Future Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Excel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Excel Esports 56%Future Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetManic
LeshracShanks
Timbersaw生死
Sand KingIrving
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Shadow Shamanrayy
JakiroRedPanda
RingmasterCatYou
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Excel Esports 58%Future Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Excel Esports — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterManic
LeshracShanks
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
TidehunterIrving
Dark Seer生死
Crystal Maidenrayy
Ancient ApparitionRedPanda
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteExcel Esports · 64%
Series resultExcel Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2