PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionEEExcel Esportswin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Excel Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 8 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
493 picks · 640 bans
Muerta
471 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 584 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 509 bans
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 790 bans
Magnus
412 picks · 927 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Excel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:5
Excel Esports 48%Spiky Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 18:22.
Game 2prediction missed8:22
Excel Esports 48%Spiky Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 16:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 52%
Series resultExcel Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2