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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Excel Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tearlamentswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Excel Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 8 games
13%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lina
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%

Tearlaments

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
7e · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Srf · 3 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 3 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Srf · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 603 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
471 picks · 237 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 775 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 513 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
343 picks · 791 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
318 picks · 353 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:45
Excel Esports 39%Tearlaments 61%
The model gave 61% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 51:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
53% · 229 games52% · 243 games
Doompoyoyo
Doom
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterukiyo
50% · 191 game44% · 154 games
TimbersawEcho
Timbersaw
Terrorblade
Terrorblade生死
45% · 248 games49% · 176 games
Nature's Prophet7e
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingRedPanda
48% · 47 games52% · 125 games
EnigmaSrf
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCatYou
55% · 123 games51% · 140 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct24:27
Excel Esports 40%Tearlaments 60%
The model gave 60% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaukiyo
52% · 171 game41% · 151 game
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
54% · 336 games51% · 206 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Undying
Undying生死
47% · 58 games48% · 429 games
TinyEcho
Tiny
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRedPanda
50% · 315 games46% · 150 games
Nature's Prophet7e
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCatYou
57% · 184 games51% · 128 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 67%
Series resultTearlaments 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2