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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Excel Esportswin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Excel Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
生死 · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
CatYou · 4 games
25%

Vici Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 2 games
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Paparazi · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Ori · 1 game
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaka · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
478 picks · 447 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 534 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
440 picks · 221 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
342 picks · 640 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 446 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 656 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 218 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 84 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:12
Excel Esports 35%Vici Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
51% · 281 game51% · 277 games
GyrocopterPaparazi
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
49% · 179 games47% · 380 games
BeastmasterYang
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark Seer生死
51% · 238 games60% · 20 games
Death ProphetOri
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
60% · 130 games46% · 52 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskCatYou
46% · 298 games48% · 397 games
TinyKaka
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed26:7
Excel Esports 34%Vici Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 29:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
50% · 370 games50% · 109 games
LunaPaparazi
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
45% · 110 games50% · 259 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner生死
52% · 217 games56% · 343 games
PangolierYang
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterCatYou
48% · 121 game51% · 128 games
LionKaka
Lion
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
44% · 164 games55% · 143 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed41:16
Excel Esports 35%Vici Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomukiyo
52% · 160 games55% · 24 games
Death ProphetOri
Death Prophet
Lina
LinaButterflyEffect
56% · 93 games50% · 102 games
WeaverPaparazi
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner生死
50% · 151 game42% · 163 games
Dark SeerYang
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
57% · 89 games49% · 360 games
TinyKaka
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCatYou
46% · 186 games55% · 30 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 80%
Series resultExcel Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3