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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 9 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 9 games
56%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 879 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 405 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 294 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
381 picks · 791 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 532 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
337 picks · 674 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 475 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 378 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Execration 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAbat
55% · 322 games46% · 131 game
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Lycan
LycanTino-
57% · 35 games55% · 96 games
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingShanks
55% · 133 games44% · 92 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Jakiro
Jakirocml
42% · 171 game51% · 141 game
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
48% · 201 game
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct22:36
Execration 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbat
42% · 197 games57% · 60 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Razor
RazorTino-
40% · 125 games56% · 101 game
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinShanks
54% · 32 games53% · 52 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
Snapfirecml
48% · 122 games60% · 41 game
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
52% · 222 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2