BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
462 picks · 181 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 204 bans
Mars
350 picks · 560 bans
Puck
333 picks · 824 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 472 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 242 bans
Grimstroke
286 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Execration 55%Army Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPalos
Wraith Kingdb-
Storm SpiritBob
MarsMamangDaya
BeastmasterLuciano
TidehunterwoMy
AbaddonRR
GrimstrokeLym-
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Execration 56%Army Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
Phantom Lancerdb-
ViperLuciano
TimbersawwoMy
Ember SpiritBob
BatriderMamangDaya
LionRR
GrimstrokeLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2