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BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bob · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 15 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 10 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
367 picks · 579 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 228 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
332 picks · 570 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 330 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
239 picks · 754 bans
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
238 picks · 454 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
213 picks · 102 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
212 picks · 318 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:40
Execration 55%Army Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracBob
50% · 173 games55% · 97 games
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Lifestealer
Pudge
PudgePalos
53% · 106 games50% · 128 games
Tidehunterdb-
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsTino-
47% · 441 game48% · 304 games
TinyYowe
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenShanks
52% · 93 games46% · 121 game
RubickJhocam
Rubick
51% · 163 games
MiranaVarizh
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed22:35
Execration 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
48% · 157 games57% · 30 games
Lone DruidinYourdreaM
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 334 games48% · 108 games
Doomdb-
Doom
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTino-
46% · 109 games48% · 245 games
PuckYowe
Puck
Mirana
MiranaShanks
55% · 196 games54% · 305 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
52% · 108 games
DisruptorVarizh
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2