Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlantisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Bane
RR · 13 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Grimstroke
RR · 9 games
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 435 bans
Bane
446 picks · 271 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
399 picks · 478 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Execration 58%Atlantis 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:04.
Game 2prediction correct42:15
Execration 58%Atlantis 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2