ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Clockwerk
cml · 4 games
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 446 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 445 bans
Lion
235 picks · 213 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
Vengeful Spirit
230 picks · 128 bans
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 654 bans
Pangolier
225 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:27
Execration 25%Aurora Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 23:24.
Game 2prediction missed27:15
Execration 25%Aurora Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 36:53.
Game 3prediction missed47:31
Execration 25%Aurora Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 51:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 75%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3