The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 16 games
Rubick
Shanks · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
687 picks · 471 bans
Techies
630 picks · 664 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1121 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
511 picks · 1248 bans
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1055 bans
Enchantress
471 picks · 702 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 931 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 34%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Execration 52%beastcoast 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:20.
Game 2prediction missed9:39
Execration 52%beastcoast 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by beastcoast in 31:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2