Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Shanks · 16 games
Rubick
Shanks · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
588 picks · 509 bans
Beastmaster
488 picks · 1208 bans
Doom
484 picks · 929 bans
Ember Spirit
433 picks · 1091 bans
Pangolier
420 picks · 874 bans
Mirana
408 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
403 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
Execration 57%Blacklist International 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 37:10.
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Execration 57%Blacklist International 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:10.
Game 3prediction missed4:39
Execration 57%Blacklist International 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 57%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3