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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 26 games
69%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 24 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 15 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 12 games
58%

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
756 picks · 483 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
537 picks · 387 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 605 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 642 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 756 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:3
Execration 58%Bleed Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
40% · 22 games58% · 68 games
SlarkJaCkky
Slark
Broodmother
BroodmotherTino-
56% · 105 games53% · 34 games
Centaur Warrunnericeiceice
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
52% · 63 games50% · 206 games
RubickDJ
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
39% · 173 games53% · 55 games
AbaddonDuBu
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Execration 59%Bleed Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagePalos
60% · 6 games60% · 47 games
SpectreJaCkky
Spectre
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
47% · 238 games55% · 222 games
Enigmaiceiceice
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderBob
52% · 156 games46% · 338 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Rubick
RubickShanks
47% · 374 games46% · 167 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 69%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2