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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 4 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
cml · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
33%

Bleed Esports

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 7 games
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
DJ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
302 picks · 440 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
275 picks · 412 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 444 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
230 picks · 213 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 214 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 646 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 124 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
219 picks · 312 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Execration 45%Bleed Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 59:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawTino-
54% · 290 games48% · 96 games
Faceless VoidJaCkky
Faceless Void
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
41% · 139 games52% · 180 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Chen
Chencml
56% · 93 games53% · 266 games
RubickDJ
Rubick
Lion
LionShanks
43% · 182 games52% · 162 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct8:42
Execration 43%Bleed Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTino-
52% · 38 games51% · 76 games
SpectreJaCkky
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierBob
52% · 127 games42% · 123 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
49% · 28 games56% · 45 games
Bounty HunterPoloson
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
61% · 82 games33% · 31 game
Winter WyvernDJ
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 61%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2