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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 17 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Hyde · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
467 picks · 188 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 588 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 883 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 245 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 435 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 404 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total52% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
Execration 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYowe
58% · 41 game52% · 51 game
LunaDreamocel
Luna
Wraith King
Wraith KingPalos
40% · 109 games56% · 112 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsForce
47% · 171 game51% · 156 games
PhoenixKhezcute
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
54% · 105 games43% · 107 games
TuskHyde
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct22:36
Execration 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePalos
46% · 43 games55% · 62 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorYowe
56% · 67 games64% · 20 games
BristlebackDreamocel
Bristleback
Leshrac
LeshracForce
46% · 84 games48% · 117 games
LionHyde
Lion
Oracle
OracleRR
45% · 89 games47% · 84 games
PhoenixKhezcute
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2