?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 15 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 9 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Palos · 9 games
56%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 20 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 14 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 12 games
25%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
352 picks · 340 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 337 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
255 picks · 247 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
232 picks · 189 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 148 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
202 picks · 527 bans
51%
Silencer
Silencer
192 picks · 216 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
189 picks · 110 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:36
Execration 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 1:13:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
43% · 102 games58% · 64 games
LinaNatsumi
Lina
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
49% · 189 games47% · 132 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTino-
49% · 136 games55% · 137 games
TuskYopaj
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
48% · 64 games54% · 50 games
Shadow DemonXepher
Shadow Demon
51% · 108 games
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed29:27
Execration 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
56% · 145 games46% · 39 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckBob
53% · 309 games52% · 115 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Visage
VisageTino-
58% · 140 games40% · 103 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinShanks
51% · 147 games47% · 335 games
TinyXepher
Tiny
43% · 149 games
RubickxNova
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2