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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 19 games
42%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Xepher · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
459 picks · 225 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
444 picks · 483 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 656 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 695 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
327 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
308 picks · 516 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 626 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total63% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPalos
43% · 72 games62% · 44 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Visage
VisageTino-
47% · 121 game45% · 120 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBob
47% · 58 games55% · 26 games
Legion CommanderWs
Legion Commander
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
51% · 106 games56% · 81 game
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
49% · 86 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed30:13
Execration 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
53% · 199 games43% · 81 game
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckBob
51% · 132 games47% · 103 games
MarsWs
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
59% · 111 games53% · 230 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderShanks
50% · 281 game44% · 241 game
SilencerxNova
Silencer
46% · 68 games
IoBoBoKa
Io
Game 3prediction missed40:22
Execration 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPalos
49% · 115 games49% · 213 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyBob
52% · 310 games43% · 109 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Visage
VisageTino-
55% · 93 games41% · 132 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
50% · 262 games56% · 69 games
Dark WillowBoBoKa
Dark Willow
55% · 257 games
Treant ProtectorxNova
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 63%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3