?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 6 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 6 games
67%

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
59%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Jabz · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
305 picks · 762 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
295 picks · 275 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 290 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
257 picks · 245 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
255 picks · 725 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 593 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Execration 35%BOOM Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
42% · 106 games55% · 164 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
45% · 194 games46% · 184 games
Nature's ProphetSancity
Nature's Prophet
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
48% · 177 games53% · 104 games
LycanJabz
Lycan
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
43% · 113 games61% · 139 games
Naga SirenNARMAN
Naga Siren
Bane
Banecml
52% · 85 games57% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct7:30
Execration 35%BOOM Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
45% · 199 games46% · 186 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Puck
PuckBob
46% · 309 games56% · 220 games
Void SpiritSancity
Void Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackTino-
47% · 230 games49% · 252 games
AbaddonJabz
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderShanks
49% · 277 games64% · 195 games
ChenNARMAN
Chen
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
48% · 182 games51% · 344 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct10:30
Execration 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
53% · 239 games59% · 129 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
43% · 199 games47% · 192 games
Queen of PainSancity
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
51% · 263 games48% · 115 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Zeus
ZeusShanks
47% · 41 game59% · 103 games
ChenNARMAN
Chen
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
44% · 128 games48% · 331 game
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3