PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBruv123win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Bruv123
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
431 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
418 picks · 458 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 836 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
367 picks · 762 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 535 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:22
Execration 57%Bruv123 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Dragon KnightPalos
MiranaShanks
Storm SpiritBob
Witch Doctorcml
Brewmasterseimei
61% · 48 games
ChenSe
Game 2prediction missed7:34
Execration 54%Bruv123 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 23:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterTino-
AlchemistPalos
WindrangerShanks
PangolierBob
Jakirocml
Doomseimei
49% · 125 games
Crystal MaidenSe
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Series resultBruv123 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2