Execration vs Carstensz Esports — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Execrationloss 1:2

series probability

85%15%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Carstensz Esportswin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Axeoften banned

Tino- · 16 games

38%

Marsoften banned

Tino- · 16 games

44%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Palos · 15 games

13%

Jakirooften banned

cml · 15 games

40%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Palos · 14 games

50%

Skywrath Mage

cml · 13 games

54%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Bob · 12 games

50%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Bob · 12 games

50%

Carstensz Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

632 picks · 696 bans

49%

Tiny

511 picks · 451 bans

48%

Tusk

483 picks · 388 bans

50%

Warlock

431 picks · 288 bans

48%

Phoenix

406 picks · 349 bans

55%

Shadow Demon

387 picks · 1070 bans

56%

Puck

382 picks · 802 bans

52%

Mars

379 picks · 560 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Carstensz Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total85% Execration

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed12:38

Execration 68%Carstensz Esports 32%

The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 29:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo