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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
cml · 11 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
cml · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Bob · 10 games
70%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
cml · 9 games
56%

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
ace12 · 3 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Lich
Lich
ace12 · 3 games
33%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Dreamocel · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Q · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 436 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
580 picks · 320 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 658 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 382 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 528 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 1038 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 413 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Execration 63%Carstensz Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
46% · 113 games42% · 311 games
TinyDreamocel
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
47% · 207 games51% · 171 game
Doomseimei
Doom
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritAkashi
55% · 18 games43% · 120 games
Silencerace12
Silencer
Largo
LargoShanks
64% · 124 games
Bane
Banecml
59% · 140 games
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Execration 63%Carstensz Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
53% · 50 games60% · 50 games
Drow RangerDreamocel
Drow Ranger
Snapfire
SnapfireBob
37% · 106 games47% · 419 games
Slardarseimei
Slardar
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
46% · 119 games54% · 95 games
Treant Protectorace12
Treant Protector
Chen
Chencml
59% · 60 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
49% · 229 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 76%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2