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PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Cignal Ultraloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 8 games
38%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 8 games
63%

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 4 games
25%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ab1ng · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
471 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 566 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 839 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 461 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 243 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 596 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
301 picks · 281 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:40
Execration 58%Cignal Ultra 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 1