DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Darlengwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 7 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 6 games
Clockwerk
Shanks · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Darleng
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 355 bans
Phoenix
249 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
204 picks · 524 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:4
Execration 58%Darleng 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Darleng in 25:55.
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Execration 58%Darleng 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Darleng in 32:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultDarleng 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2