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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dream Makerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

Dream Maker

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
0%
Lich
Lich
TrazaM · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
czy · 1 game
0%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
100%
Windranger
Windranger
czy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
262 picks · 435 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
261 picks · 522 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 341 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 345 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 245 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
237 picks · 403 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Execration 57%Dream Maker 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying
UndyingTino-
54% · 56 games51% · 90 games
TidehunterNevermine
Tidehunter
Leshrac
LeshracBob
46% · 83 games53% · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritczy
Vengeful Spirit
Lion
LionRR
45% · 146 games52% · 186 games
MarsTrazaM
Mars
Game 2prediction correct37:28
Execration 60%Dream Maker 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTino-
45% · 60 games51% · 57 games
Sand KingNevermine
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderBob
50% · 62 games53% · 117 games
Miranaczy
Mirana
Abaddon
AbaddonRR
51% · 57 games44% · 5 games
SilencerTrazaM
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2