The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 13 games
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
Rubick
Matthew · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
733 picks · 464 bans
Tusk
611 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
574 picks · 458 bans
Treant Protector
516 picks · 574 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 233 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 388 bans
Nature's Prophet
377 picks · 554 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:23
Execration 47%Evil Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Execration in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciPalos
MorphlingPakazs
Ember SpiritBob
SnapfireChris Luck
Nature's ProphetTino-
BatriderWisper
Shadow DemonShanks
Monkey KingMatthew
58% · 206 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Game 2prediction correct10:34
Execration 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgePalos
Faceless VoidPakazs
Shadow FiendBob
LeshracChris Luck
Keeper of the LightTino-
BroodmotherWisper
SlarkShanks
RubickMatthew
50% · 117 games
ClockwerkPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2