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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 20 games
75%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 696 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1210 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Execration 36%Evil Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomTino-
51% · 202 games59% · 134 games
SlarkPakazs
Slark
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBob
42% · 129 games49% · 79 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
52% · 89 games58% · 215 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickShanks
43% · 365 games46% · 266 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
54% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct21:40
Execration 37%Evil Geniuses 63%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPalos
71% · 3 games60% · 103 games
Faceless VoidPakazs
Faceless Void
Underlord
UnderlordTino-
49% · 53 games48% · 64 games
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Batrider
BatriderBob
49% · 233 games45% · 302 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickShanks
49% · 572 games55% · 144 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
46% · 248 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 73%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2