FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FHfluke houseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 6 games
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 5 games
Kunkka
Palos · 5 games
fluke house
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
292 picks · 674 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 628 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 527 bans
Marci
244 picks · 546 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Execration 72%fluke house 28%
The model gave 72% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:32.
Game 2prediction correct35:33
Execration 72%fluke house 28%
The model gave 72% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 50:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 72%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2