Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Witch Doctor
RR · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Bloodseeker
Rupido · 1 game
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 274 bans
Mars
118 picks · 231 bans
Earth Spirit
107 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
99 picks · 156 bans
Phoenix
95 picks · 99 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Nyx Assassin
76 picks · 273 bans
Keeper of the Light
75 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:41
Execration 55%Fnatic 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Fnatic in 38:36.
Game 2prediction missed13:36
Execration 55%Fnatic 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Fnatic in 28:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2