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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 11 games
27%

Gaimin Gladiators

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 15 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
64%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
720 picks · 454 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
603 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 453 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
507 picks · 567 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 226 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
368 picks · 536 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 569 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:17
Execration 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Execration in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPalos
43% · 197 games53% · 127 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherTino-
48% · 118 games48% · 86 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderBob
54% · 230 games54% · 209 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageShanks
56% · 174 games45% · 170 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
50% · 127 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 2prediction correct7:31
Execration 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
51% · 123 games54% · 56 games
Sniperdyrachyo
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingPalos
46% · 137 games50% · 160 games
BatriderQuinn
Batrider
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
43% · 230 games57% · 75 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShanks
54% · 59 games55% · 172 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
45% · 86 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2