Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Geek Famloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 26 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
Earthshaker
Shanks · 12 games
Geek Fam
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
Undyingsignature
ace12 · 14 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
793 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 403 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 735 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 834 bans
Snapfire
412 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 859 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Execration 53%Geek Fam 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPalos
Nature's ProphetSkem
Keeper of the LightTino-
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Ember SpiritBob
Shadow DemonNARMAN
TinyShanks
ClockwerkJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Execration 59%Geek Fam 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPalos
LycanForce
BroodmotherTino-
PudgeSkem
TinyBob
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
RubickShanks
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2