ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Tino- · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Palos · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Geek Fam
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 7 games
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 7 games
Axe
Force · 6 games
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
188 picks · 79 bans
Grimstroke
187 picks · 209 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 216 bans
Earth Spirit
158 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total53% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Execration 50%Geek Fam 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingPalos
Chaos KnightNatsumi
LinaBob
KunkkaMac
MagnusTino-
SnapfireSkem
Dark WillowShanks
ClockwerkJing
Phoenixcml
Game 2prediction missed13:37
Execration 53%Geek Fam 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverPalos
Wraith KingNatsumi
DawnbreakerTino-
Lone DruidMac
PuckBob
Dark WillowJing
Shadow DemonShanks
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Jakirocml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 53%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2