ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IHC Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Tino- · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 7 games
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Palos · 7 games
IHC Esports
Morphlingsignature
423 · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Se · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
423 · 5 games
Magnus
eleven · 5 games
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
Shadow Demon
ace12 · 5 games
Underlord
eleven · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 376 bans
Grimstroke
173 picks · 155 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
165 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 233 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Execration 59%IHC Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 43:01.
Game 2prediction correct37:37
Execration 56%IHC Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 47:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaPalos
Templar AssassinSancity
PuckBob
Dark Willow423
Chaos KnightTino-
Pangoliereleven
GrimstrokeShanks
Phoenixace12
Tuskcml
BatriderSe
Game 3prediction correct31:47
Execration 53%IHC Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:02:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPalos
Wraith King423
BristlebackTino-
PangolierSancity
KunkkaBob
Primal Beasteleven
Shadow DemonShanks
Grimstrokeace12
Clockwerkcml
SilencerSe
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 59%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3