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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Bob · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
cml · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 4 games
50%

InterActive Philippines

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 569 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 336 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 521 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
340 picks · 264 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 648 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 189 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
301 picks · 304 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Execration 65%InterActive Philippines 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
47% · 11 games50% · 105 games
LifestealerNishababy
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierBob
53% · 36 games
Mars
MarsTino-
52% · 21 game
Rubick
Rubickcml
47% · 30 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingShanks
55% · 7 games
Game 2prediction missed21:31
Execration 81%InterActive Philippines 19%
The model gave 81% on Execration — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 38:35.
Game 3prediction correct33:2
Execration 81%InterActive Philippines 19%
The model gave 81% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 81%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3