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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 8 games
88%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
467 picks · 582 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 556 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 533 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 774 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 464 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 232 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Execration 70%Ivory 30%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:56.
Game 2prediction missed15:36
Execration 70%Ivory 30%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Ivory in 43:08.
Game 3prediction correct18:39
Execration 70%Ivory 30%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 70%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3